Viewing archive of Thursday, 4 March 2021

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Mar 04 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 63 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Mar 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (05 Mar, 06 Mar, 07 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 604 km/s at 04/0019Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 04/0843Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 04/0001Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 6727 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (05 Mar), quiet to minor storm levels on day two (06 Mar) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (07 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 05 Mar to 07 Mar
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       04 Mar 081
  Predicted   05 Mar-07 Mar 080/078/075
  90 Day Mean        04 Mar 078

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 03 Mar  015/022
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 04 Mar  009/010
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 05 Mar-07 Mar  007/010-018/020-013/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Mar to 07 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%40%30%
Minor storm10%25%10%
Major-severe storm01%05%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%10%15%
Minor storm30%25%30%
Major-severe storm40%65%40%

All times in UTC

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G1 - Minor geomagnetic storm

Observed Kp: 5
Threshold reached: 04:05 UTC

Current data suggests there is a moderate possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Gillam, MB, Yellowknife, NT

Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Iqaluit, NU, Saskatoon, SK
Nuuk
The solar wind speed is currently moderately high (695.7 km/sec.)
The Disturbance Storm Time index predicts moderate storm conditions right now (-59nT)

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