Viewing archive of Saturday, 3 April 2021

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Apr 03 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 93 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Apr 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (04 Apr, 05 Apr, 06 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 409 km/s at 03/0000Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 02/2101Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 03/1105Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 158 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (04 Apr) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (05 Apr, 06 Apr).
III. Event Probabilities 04 Apr to 06 Apr
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       03 Apr 073
  Predicted   04 Apr-06 Apr 073/073/072
  90 Day Mean        03 Apr 076

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 02 Apr  004/005
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 03 Apr  005/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 04 Apr-06 Apr  006/005-006/008-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Apr to 06 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%20%25%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%20%20%
Minor storm25%30%30%
Major-severe storm20%25%25%

All times in UTC

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G1 - Minor geomagnetic storm

Observed Kp: 5
Threshold reached: 04:05 UTC

Current data suggests there is a moderate possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Gillam, MB, Yellowknife, NT

Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Iqaluit, NU, Saskatoon, SK
Nuuk
The solar wind speed is currently moderately high (695.7 km/sec.)
The Disturbance Storm Time index predicts moderate storm conditions right now (-59nT)

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