Viewing archive of Sunday, 11 April 2021

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Apr 11 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 101 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Apr 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (12 Apr, 13 Apr, 14 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 383 km/s at 11/1859Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 11/1906Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 10/2220Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 136 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (12 Apr, 13 Apr) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (14 Apr).
III. Event Probabilities 12 Apr to 14 Apr
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       11 Apr 073
  Predicted   12 Apr-14 Apr 072/072/072
  90 Day Mean        11 Apr 076

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 10 Apr  003/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 11 Apr  006/007
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 12 Apr-14 Apr  006/005-006/005-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Apr to 14 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%15%
Minor storm01%05%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm20%20%25%
Major-severe storm20%15%20%

All times in UTC

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Current data suggests there is a moderate possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Gillam, MB, Whitehorse, YT
Fairbanks, AK

Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Edmonton, AB, Saskatoon, SK, Yellowknife, NT
Anchorage, AK, Juneau, AK

Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following middle latitude regions in the near future

Calgary, AB
The solar wind speed is currently moderately high (674.3 km/sec.)
The Disturbance Storm Time index predicts moderate storm conditions right now (-60nT)

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