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Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 May 01 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 121 Issued at 2200Z on 01 May 2021IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30-2100Z to 01-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (02 May, 03 May, 04 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30-2100Z to 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 385 km/s at 01/1803Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at
01/1506Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
01/1345Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 522 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one, two, and three (02 May, 03
May, 04 May).
III. Event Probabilities 02 May to 04 May
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 May 072 Predicted 02 May-04 May 070/070/072 90 Day Mean 01 May 076
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Apr 006/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 01 May 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 02 May-04 May 014/015-011/012-011/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 May to 04 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 30% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 50% | 40% | 40% |
All times in UTC
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