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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 May 01 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 121 Issued at 2200Z on 01 May 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30-2100Z to 01-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (02 May, 03 May, 04 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30-2100Z to 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 385 km/s at 01/1803Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 01/1506Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 01/1345Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 522 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one, two, and three (02 May, 03 May, 04 May).
III. Event Probabilities 02 May to 04 May
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       01 May 072
  Predicted   02 May-04 May 070/070/072
  90 Day Mean        01 May 076

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 30 Apr  006/006
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 01 May  005/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 02 May-04 May  014/015-011/012-011/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 May to 04 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%25%25%
Minor storm15%10%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%15%15%
Minor storm25%30%30%
Major-severe storm50%40%40%

All times in UTC

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