Viewing archive of Wednesday, 7 December 2022
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Dec 07 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 341 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Dec 2022IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at
07/1304Z from Region 3157 (N16E19). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (08 Dec, 09 Dec, 10 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 498 km/s at 07/2045Z. Total IMF
reached 20 nT at 07/1618Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-13 nT at 07/1405Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 2496 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (08 Dec) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (09 Dec, 10 Dec).
III. Event Probabilities 08 Dec to 10 Dec
| Class M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 Dec 148 Predicted 08 Dec-10 Dec 150/150/150 90 Day Mean 07 Dec 132
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Dec 002/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Dec 011/019 Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Dec-10 Dec 016/020-010/010-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Dec to 10 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 65% | 30% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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