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Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Jul 23 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 204 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Jul 2023IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C9 event observed at
23/0454Z from Region 3373 (N09W57). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (24 Jul, 25 Jul,
26 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 484 km/s at 23/1944Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at
23/1811Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
23/1909Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 202 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (24 Jul), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (25 Jul) and quiet levels on day three (26 Jul).
III. Event Probabilities 24 Jul to 26 Jul
| Class M | 45% | 30% | 25% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 Jul 173 Predicted 24 Jul-26 Jul 165/165/160 90 Day Mean 23 Jul 163
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Jul 009/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Jul 006/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Jul-26 Jul 009/012-010/010-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Jul to 26 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 20% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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