Viewing archive of Friday, 1 September 2023
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Sep 01 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 244 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Sep 2023IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
01/0351Z from Region 3413 (N10W74). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on day one (02 Sep) and likely to be low
with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days two and three (03 Sep,
04 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 559 km/s at 01/2024Z. Total IMF reached 11
nT at 31/2154Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at
01/1256Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 25 pfu at 01/0610Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 111 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (02 Sep), active to minor
storm levels on day two (03 Sep) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (04 Sep). Protons greater than 10 Mev are expected to cross
threshold on day one (02 Sep) and have a chance of crossing threshold on
day two (03 Sep).
III. Event Probabilities 02 Sep to 04 Sep
| Class M | 25% | 20% | 15% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Proton | 99% | 30% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 Sep 136 Predicted 02 Sep-04 Sep 135/135/130 90 Day Mean 01 Sep 164
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 31 Aug 008/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Sep 012/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Sep-04 Sep 013/015-025/035-013/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Sep to 04 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 35% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 25% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 15% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 05% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 70% | 30% |
All times in UTC
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