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Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 May 09 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 130 Issued at 2200Z on 09 May 2024IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z Solar activity has been at very high levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a X2 event observed at
09/0913Z from Region 3664 (S19W34). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be high on
days one, two, and three (10 May, 11 May, 12 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 502 km/s at 09/0019Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at
09/2018Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
09/1816Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 199 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (10 May), active to
severe storm levels on day two (11 May) and unsettled to major storm
levels on day three (12 May). Protons have a chance of crossing
threshold on days one, two, and three (10 May, 11 May, 12 May).
III. Event Probabilities 10 May to 12 May
| Class M | 95% | 95% | 95% |
| Class X | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| Proton | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 May 233 Predicted 10 May-12 May 230/225/220 90 Day Mean 09 May 164
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 May 010/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 09 May 009/011 Predicted Afr/Ap 10 May-12 May 016/025-072/090-020/030
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 May to 12 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 15% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 35% | 40% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 50% | 25% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 01% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 10% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 65% | 90% | 79% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2024/11/06 | X2.39 |
| Last M-flare | 2024/11/20 | M1.1 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/11/10 | Kp5+ (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| October 2024 | 166.4 +25 |
| November 2024 | 142.7 -23.8 |
| Last 30 days | 155.2 +4.4 |