Viewing archive of Saturday, 23 November 2024

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2024 Nov 23 1235 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Solar protons

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
23 Nov 2024	192	014
24 Nov 2024	202	014
25 Nov 2024	210	007

Solar Active Regions and flaring

Solar flaring activity was moderate over the past 24 hours. The largest flare was a M1.6 flare (SIDC Flare 2677) peaking on November 22 at 15:46 UTC, which was produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 322 (NOAA Active Region 3905). A new region also rotated over the south-east solar limb, below SIDC Sunspot Group 322, and was numbered as SIDC Sunspot Group 323 (NOAA Active Region 3906), which also produced an M1 flare (SIDC Flare 2685) peaking on November 22 at 22:15 UTC. These two regions were responsible for most of the flaring activity, while the SIDC Sunspot Group 298 (NOAA Active Region 3901) also produced C-class flares. The solar flaring activity is expected to be moderate over the next 24 hours, with C-class flares expected, M-class flares likely and a chance for X-class flares.

Coronal mass ejections

No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) have been detected in the available coronagraph imagery over the past 24 hours.

Solar wind

Over the past 24 hours the interplanetary magnetic field ranged between 6 and 10nT, with a minimum Bz of -8 nT. The solar wind speed ranged between 360 km/s and 430 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field phi angle was mostly in the negative sector (directed towards the Sun). The solar wind speed may become slightly elevated over the next 24 hours due to the possible high-speed stream influence, associated with SIDC Coronal Hole 80, which began to cross the central meridian on November 20.

Geomagnetism

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were mostly quiet to unsettled, with one period of active conditions (NOAA KP 4-). Generally quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions are expected for the next 24 hours, with possible isolated active conditions due to any high- speed stream influence.

Proton flux levels

The greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was above the 10 pfu threshold at the start of the period but was continually decreasing and returned below the threshold from 18:45 UTC November 22. The greater than 10 MeV GOES proton is currently at nominal levels and is expected to remain below the 10 pfu threshold over the next 24 hours.

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux as measured by GOES 18 was below the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to remain below this threshold over the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal levels and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 147, based on 05 stations.

Solar indices for 22 Nov 2024

Wolf number Catania	163
10cm solar flux	179
AK Chambon La Forêt	018
AK Wingst	014
Estimated Ap	012
Estimated international sunspot number	146 - Based on 17 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

All times in UTC

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