M flares, G2 geomagnetic storm watch

Monday, 24 May 2021 13:57 UTC

M flares, G2 geomagnetic storm watch

Our Sun has been moderately active the past few days! Sunspot region 2824 produced numerous C-class events and three M-class solar flares during the past few days. An M1.4 solar flare on Saturday, 22 May was the strongest solar flare it produced. A couple of these C and M-class solar flares were eruptive and produced coronal mass ejections which could have an earth-directed component.

We have analyzed all the SOHO and STEREO coronagraph imagery captured during these events and we think that three of these coronal mass ejections have a chance to arrive at Earth. Many more smaller coronal mass ejections were launched but those are unlikely to arrive at Earth. You need to realize these are not major coronal mass ejections but the combined effects if all three of them arrive one after the other could result in some interesting geomagnetic conditions which the NOAA SWPC agrees on.

SOHO LASCO
The three coronal mass ejections that sparked our interest.

The NOAA SWPC predicts the first of these plasma clouds to arrive tomorrow (25 May) and expects minor G1 geomagnetic storm conditions very soon after. The day after we could see even stronger storm conditions. A moderate G2 geomagnetic storm watch (Kp6) is in effect for 26 May. High latitude sky watchers in Europe, Alaska and northern Canada might have trouble seeing anything with the midnight Sun starting to overpower the night skies but locations near the US-Canadian border and of course our friends down under might be able to see some nice aurora in the days ahead. Good luck!

ENLIL
NOAA SWPC ENLIL model run.

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