M6.6 solar flare with earth-directed CME
Monday, 13 May 2024 18:46 UTC
Sunspot region 3664 is now close to the west limb and quieted down a bit compared to last week. Nonetheless it was the source of an eruptive long duration M6.6 solar flare (R2-moderate) that peaked at 9:44 UTC.
You'd expect the associated coronal mass ejection to be well of the Sun-Earth line but this was a very energetic and wide eruption which showed up as an asymmetrical full halo coronal mass ejection from Earth's point of view as you can see on the imagery from SOHO/LASCO below.
Today's M6.6 solar flare from sunspot region 3664 launched an energetic and wide coronal mass ejection which has a chance to arrive at Earth despite the region being close to the west limb. An asymmetrical full halo coronal mass ejection was launched which has a good chance to… pic.twitter.com/9EKDn99kWD
— SpaceWeatherLive (@_SpaceWeather_) May 13, 2024
Due to the high ambient solar wind speed we expect that the coronal mass ejection from this M6.6 solar flare doesn't slow down too much which means it could transit the Sun-Earth gap in less than two days. We expect a possible impact late tomorrow (14 May) or early on Wednesday (15 May). The arrival of this plasma cloud will be more of a glancing blow most likely but nonetheless it could spark a minor G1 geomagnetic storm with a bit of luck.
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Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
Whitehorse, YT, Yellowknife, NTAnchorage, AK, Fairbanks, AK, Utqiagvik, AK
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Monday, 24 March 2025
Coronal hole faces Earth
The anticipated strong G3 geomagnetic storm watch never materialized as the coronal mass ejection that was supposed to arrive early yesterday didn't arrive until today just past midnight UTC. The impact was very lackluster with the Bt (total strength of the IMF) increasing to a moderate 15nT at best and the solar wind speed reaching just 420km/s. A far cry from the anticipated 700 to 800km/s. That once again goes to show how hard it is to forecast space weather events and any resulting geomagnetic conditions. We remain under the influence of the CME and high latitude sky watchers should remain alert for some nice aurora displays but middle latitude sky watchers will probably have to wait for the next opportunity.
13:55 UTC - Coronal hole
A transequatorial coronal hole is facing Earth. Enhanced solar wind could arrive in ~3 days
02:45 UTC - Geomagnetic activity
Active geomagnetic conditions (Kp4) Threshold Reached: 02:33 UTC
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