Vaata reede, 31 oktoober 2003 arhiivi

Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne

Igale käesolevas aruandes mainitud päikesepurskele on kohaldatud Kosmose Ilmaennustuskeskuse (SWPC) skaalafaktor. SWPC skaleerimisteguri tõttu on päikesepursked esitatud 42% väiksemana kui samade teadusliku kvaliteediga andmete puhul. Meie arhiveeritud päikesepursete andmetest on skaleerimisstegur eemaldatud, et kajastada tegelikke füüsikalisi ühikuid.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2003 Oct 31 2200 UTC
Valminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga

Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne

SDF number 304 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 31 Oct 2003

IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 30-2100Z kuni 31-2100Z

Solar activity was moderate. Region 488 (N08W42) produced an M1/Sf at 31/0616Z and occasional C-class flares throughout the period. This region maintains considerable size and complexity, but has yet to produce a major flare. An M2 flare was observed at 31/0433Z. Space-based imagery indicates that the source was likely behind the west limb (probably old Region 484 at N03, L=355). Huge Region 486 (S17W36) is finally showing some signs of decay. Activity this period was limited to occasional C-class flares. Despite its relative calm, this region still maintains a very complex magnetic structure in over 2000 millionths of white light areal coverage. New Region 496 (S12E09) was numbered today.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be moderate to high. Though some decay was noted in Region 486, it still maintains potential for a major solar flare. Region 488 also contains potential for a major flare.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 30-2100Z kuni 31-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from active to severe storm levels. The intense geomagnetic storm that began at around 30/1600Z, continued well into this period. Severe storm levels persisted from 30/2100Z through 31/0900Z. Mostly active to major storm periods occurred through the latter half of the period. Solar radiation contamination on the ACE SWEPAM instrument finally ended at 31/0052Z. Solar wind speed was at an exceptionally high 1200 km/s, but has been in a gradual decline, ending the period at over 800 km/s. The prolonged periods of southward IMF Bz that occurred early in the period have ended. Bz has been mostly northward since 31/0200Z. The greater than 100 MeV proton event in progress since 28/1145Z, ended at 31/0145Z. This prolonged high energy proton event was actually two distinct events associated with the X17 and X10 flares on the 28th and 29th respectively. The peak measurements for both events were 186 pfu at 29/0015Z and 110 pfu at 29/2310Z. The greater than 10 MeV proton event remains in progress, but is quickly declining to the 10 pfu alert threshold. The two peak measurements at 10 MeV were 29,000 pfu at 29/0615Z and 3300 pfu at 30/1935Z. The PCA event has ended.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels through 1 November. Isolated major storm periods are possible at higher latitudes due to the very elevated solar wind speeds. The 2nd and 3rd of November should see a return to quiet to unsettled levels with isolated active periods. The greater than 10 MeV proton event that began on the 28th is expected to end on 1 November.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 01 Novkuni 03 Nov
Klass M75%70%60%
Klass X40%35%30%
Prooton99%50%20%
PCAFYellow
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
  Vaadeldud       31 Oct 249
  Prognoositud   01 Nov-03 Nov  240/230/220
  90 päeva keskmine        31 Oct 130
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
  Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 30 Oct  144/162
  Hinnanguline     Afr/Ap 31 Oct  075/110
  Prognoositud    Afr/Ap 01 Nov-03 Nov  025/040-010/015-010/010
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 01 Nov kuni 03 Nov
A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel
Aktiivne50%25%25%
Väike torm20%10%10%
Suur-tõsine torm05%01%01%
B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel
Aktiivne60%30%30%
Väike torm30%15%15%
Suur-tõsine torm10%05%05%

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