Vaata laupäev, 1 november 2003 arhiivi

Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne

Igale käesolevas aruandes mainitud päikesepurskele on kohaldatud Kosmose Ilmaennustuskeskuse (SWPC) skaalafaktor. SWPC skaleerimisteguri tõttu on päikesepursked esitatud 42% väiksemana kui samade teadusliku kvaliteediga andmete puhul. Meie arhiveeritud päikesepursete andmetest on skaleerimisstegur eemaldatud, et kajastada tegelikke füüsikalisi ühikuid.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2003 Nov 01 2200 UTC
Valminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga

Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne

SDF number 305 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 01 Nov 2003

IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 31-2100Z kuni 01-2100Z

Solar activity was at moderate levels today. Region 488 (N08W55) produced two M-class flares during the period; an M1 x-ray flare at 01/0852Z and a second M1 x-ray flare at 01/1751Z. Due to insufficient data from LASCO imagery it is unknown if there is any associated CME activity. This region has changed little during the period and continues to depict a very complex beta-gamma-delta magnetic structure. White light areal coverage is at 1610 millionths. Region 486 (S17W49) continues to be considerable in size and complexity although it only managed to produced lesser C-class flare activity during the period. Slight, yet continued decay was observed over the past 24 hours of penumbral coverage in white light analysis. This region is still very impressive and continues to exhibit a very complex beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration. Much of the remainder of the disk and limb were relatively quiescent today. No new regions were numbered today
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be at moderate to high levels. Regions 486 and 488 are both capable of producing major flare activity.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 31-2100Z kuni 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to minor storm levels. Solar wind speeds have gradually decreased from the start of the period, approximately 850 km/s to 600 km/s (at the time of this writing) while the Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field has remained consistently northward during the period. The greater than 10 MeV proton fluxes at geosynchronous orbit that had two distinct maximum measurements (29,000 pfu at 29/0615Z; from the X17 flare and 3,300 pfu at 30/1935Z; from the X10 flare) resulting from subsequent days major flare activity has ended at 01/1310Z. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at predominantly unsettled to active levels. Isolated minor storm conditions are possible on day one due to the elevated solar wind speeds. The greater than 10 MeV proton fluxes at geosynchronous orbit remain elevated and could again reach alert threshold with continued major flare activity.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 02 Novkuni 04 Nov
Klass M70%70%60%
Klass X35%30%25%
Prooton50%35%15%
PCAFyellow
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
  Vaadeldud       01 Nov 210
  Prognoositud   02 Nov-04 Nov  200/190/175
  90 päeva keskmine        01 Nov 130
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
  Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 31 Oct  073/093
  Hinnanguline     Afr/Ap 01 Nov  020/020
  Prognoositud    Afr/Ap 02 Nov-04 Nov  010/015-010/010-010/010
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 02 Nov kuni 04 Nov
A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel
Aktiivne25%20%20%
Väike torm10%10%10%
Suur-tõsine torm05%05%05%
B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel
Aktiivne35%25%25%
Väike torm20%15%10%
Suur-tõsine torm10%05%05%

Kõik ajad UTC-s

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