Pogoda kosmiczna - Dyskusja

Odnotowany: 2024 Apr 30 0030 UTC
Przygotowane przez Departament do Spraw Komercjalizacji USA, NOAA, Centrum Prognozowania Pogody Kosmicznej (SWPC) i przetworzony przez SpaceWeatherLive.com

Aktywność słoneczna

Podsumowanie dobowe

Solar activity reached moderate levels. Region 3654 (S07W43, Ekc/beta-gamma-delta) produced two R1 (Minor) events; an M2.5 flare at 29/0048 UTC and an M3.7 flare at 29/0111 UTC. The region also produced numerous C-class activity including a C8.5/1n at 29/1926 UTC. Region 3654 continued a trend of growth, especially in the intermediate and trailer spots, and maintained a delta magnetic configuration in the largest intermediate spot. New Regions 3661 (N23E69, Hsx/alpha) and 3662 (N30E46, Cro/beta) were numbered this period. The remaining regions were either stable or in decay. Other activity included an eruption near N13W09 at 29/0909 UTC that displayed a westward flow across GOES-16 SUVI imagery. SOHO/LASCO imagery showed a CME off the NW limb at 29/1248 UTC that was modelled as a potential Earth hit early on 03 May. Further analysis is ongoing. No other Earth-directed CMEs were detected in available imagery.

Prognoza

Solar activity is expected to be at low levels over 30 Apr and 01-02 May with a chance for M-class flare (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) activity.

Cząsteczki energetyczne

Podsumowanie dobowe

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels.

Prognoza

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels over 30 Apr and 01-02 May. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels over 29-30 Apr and 01 May.

Wiatr słoneczny

Podsumowanie dobowe

The solar wind environment was mildly enhanced due to positive polarity CH HSS influences. Total field strength reached a peak of 8 nT and the Bz component was varied between +6/-4 nT. Solar wind speeds remained steady, averaging about 450 km/s. The phi angle was predominantly positive throughout the period.

Prognoza

Enhanced solar wind conditions are likely over 30 Apr and 01-02 May due to CH HSS influences and possible transient activity.

Geoprzestrzeń

Podsumowanie dobowe

The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.

Prognoza

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to range from quiet to unsettled levels on 30 Apr, and quiet to active levels on 01-02 May, due to the anticipated influence of CH HSSs combined with potential transient activity.