Прогноз Космічної Погоди - Обговорення

Випущено: 2024 Sep 20 0030 UTC
Надано Міністерством торгівлі США, NOAA, Центром прогнозування космічної погоди і опрацьовано SpaceWeatherLive.com

Сонячна активність

Підсумок за добу

Solar activity was at low levels. All numbered active regions exhibited signs of minor evolution. However, only low-level C-class X-ray events were observed in the past 24 hours. A slow-moving CME, first observed in LASCO/C2 after 19/0600 UTC, appears to have originated from a broad area in the higher latitudes of the NW quadrant. Analysis and modeling of the event suggested no Earth-directed component was produced. No other potentially Earth-directed signatures were identified in available coronagraph imagery.

Прогноз

There is a chance for solar activity to reach moderate levels (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate), with a slight chance for X-class flares (R3-Strong), on 20-22 Sep.

Заряджені Частинки

Підсумок за добу

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux briefly reached high levels with a maximum flux of 1,230 pfu at 19/1745 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was near background levels.

Прогноз

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is likely to reach moderate levels on 20-22 Sep. There is a slight chance for a greater than 10 MeV proton event (S1-Minor) on 20-22 Sep.

Сонячний Вітер

Підсумок за добу

Solar wind parameters were slightly enhanced due to possible weak transient influence. Solar wind speed were mostly between 400-450 km/s. Total magnetic field strength ranged from 4-9 nT. The Bz component was primarily oriented southward, with a maximum southward deflection of -9 nT. Phi angle was positive.

Прогноз

Solar wind parameters are expected to trend towards nominal levels on 19-20 Sep. By 21 Sep, an enhancement is possible with the arrival of a positive polarity CH HSS.

Геопростір

Підсумок за добу

The geomagnetic field reached G1 (Minor) storm levels during the 19/0000-0300 UTC synoptic period due to transient influence.

Прогноз

The geomagnetic field is likely to return to mostly quiet levels over 20 Sep. Quiet to unsettled conditions are anticipated on 21-22 Sep due to possible CH HSS influence.