Прогноз Космічної Погоди - Обговорення

Випущено: 2024 Nov 22 1230 UTC
Надано Міністерством торгівлі США, NOAA, Центром прогнозування космічної погоди і опрацьовано SpaceWeatherLive.com

Сонячна активність

Підсумок за добу

Solar activity returned to low levels with only C-class flares observed. Region 3901 (S07E24, Dai/beta-gamma) was responsible for nearly all of the flare activity throughout the period, the largest of which was a C9 flare at 22/0344 UTC. This region exhibited growth in its trailing spot area and maintained its gamma configuration. New Regions 3903 (S10W17, Cai/beta), 3904 (S13W63, Cao/beta), and 3905 S09E77, Hax/alpha) developed and were numbered this period. The remaining regions were either stable or displayed slight decay. Two large CMEs were observed in coronagraph imagery. The first was observed in LASCO C2 imagery at approximately 21/1224 UTC. This CME was associated with a large prominence that lifted off the SE limb. Analysis indicated a miss well behind of Earth. The second was a large, explosive eruption that occurred at approximately 21/1800 UTC. This event was noted in SUVI imagery from beyond the west limb, likely from old Region 3989 (S09, L=005). The associated CME was first seen in LASCO C2 imagery at 21/1812 UTC. With this event originated well beyond the west limb, it is not expected to have an Earth-directed component.

Прогноз

Solar activity is expected to be low, with a chance for M-class flares (R1/R2-Minor/Moderate) and a slight chance of X-class (R3-Strong) events 22-24 Nov.

Заряджені Частинки

Підсумок за добу

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was normal to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux reached S2 (Moderate) levels, reaching a peak value of 125 pfu at 22/0355 UTC. The 100 MeV proton levels reached a peak value of 7 pfu at 21/2010 UTC, but have since decreased well below the 1 pfu SWPC warning threshold.

Прогноз

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at S1 (Minor) levels for 22 Nov. By 23 Nov, levels are expected to diminish to a chance for S1 thresholds, with conditions returning to near background levels by 24 Nov.

Сонячний Вітер

Підсумок за добу

Solar wind parameters were indicative of a likely SSBC as the anticipated negative polarity CH HSS moved into a geoeffective position. Solar wind speeds averaged near 400 km/s, total field strength ranged between 4-10nT, and the Bz component fluctuated between +/-7 nT. The phi angle was predominantly in a negative position, with occasional oscillations into a positive orientation.

Прогноз

Solar wind conditions are anticipated to become elevated on 22-24 Nov due to negative polarity CH HSS influences.

Геопростір

Підсумок за добу

The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.

Прогноз

The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet to unsettled, with a chance for an isolated active period, on 22-24 Nov due to anticipated CH HSS effects.