Viewing archive of Monday, 29 July 1996
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1996 Jul 29 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 211 Issued at 2200Z on 29 JUL 1996IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z
SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED VERY LOW. REGION 7981
(S10E48) PRODUCED ONLY MINOR FLUCTUATIONS. THIS REGION CONSISTS
OF TWO ABUTTED BIPOLES RESULTING IN A BETA-GAMMA MAGNETIC
CLASSIFICATION. THE REGION APPEARS TO BE MATURE AND STABLE IN
WHITE LIGHT AND MAGNETIC GRADIENTS ARE NOT HIGH.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN
VERY LOW. THERE IS A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF A C-CLASS FLARE
FROM REGION 7981.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS PREDOMINANTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
SOME SITES EXPERIENCED ACTIVE CONDITIONS BETWEEN
29/0300-0900Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD
IS FORECAST TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
ISOLATED ACTIVE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THAT TIME.
III. Event Probabilities 30 JUL to 01 AUG
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 29 JUL 078 Predicted 30 JUL-01 AUG 079/080/080 90 Day Mean 29 JUL 070
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 28 JUL 010/010 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 29 JUL 008/010 PREDICTED AFR/AP 30 JUL-01 AUG 010/010-010/010-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 JUL to 01 AUG
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
Oulu, Rovaniemi, Sodankylä, UtsjokiReykjavik
Kirkenes, Tromsø
Murmansk
Kiruna, Luleå
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