Viewing archive of Wednesday, 21 August 1996
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1996 Aug 21 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 234 Issued at 2200Z on 21 AUG 1996IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED VERY LOW. RECENT YOHKOH
IMAGES SHOW OLD REGION 7981 AT THE SOUTHEAST LIMB. THE REGION IS
LESS BRIGHT THAN LAST ROTATION BUT SHOWED SOME LOOP DYNAMICS.
THIS REGION IS THE LIKELY SOURCE OF A B1 ENHANCEMENT FROM
21/1415-1801Z. IT IS POSSIBLE A CME OCCURRED WITH THIS LONG
DURATION EVENT.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN AT
A VERY LOW LEVEL. THERE IS A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF A C-CLASS
FLARE FROM OLD REGION 7981.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO SLIGHTLY UNSETTLED.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
FORECAST TO BE QUIET TO SLIGHTLY UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE
DAYS.
III. Event Probabilities 22 AUG to 24 AUG
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 21 AUG 070 Predicted 22 AUG-24 AUG 072/073/074 90 Day Mean 21 AUG 070
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 20 AUG 008/007 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 21 AUG 005/005 PREDICTED AFR/AP 22 AUG-24 AUG 005/005-005/005-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 AUG to 24 AUG
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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