Solar activity report

Viewing archive of Friday, 17 January 1997

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1997 Jan 17 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 017 Issued at 2200Z on 17 JAN 1997

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z

SOALR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. THERE WAS NO SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY NOTED. REGION 8011 (S06W04) IS THE ONLY SPOTTED REGION ON THE VISIBLE DISK. IT IS A SIMPLE AXX SPOT GROUP AND SLOWLY DECAYING. THE REMAINDER OF THE VISIBLE DISK REMAINS QUIET AND STABLE.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast

SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY LOW FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z

THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET AT ALL LATITUDES. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUX RANGED FROM MODERATE TO HIGH LEVELS OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast

THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUIET FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.

III. Event Probabilities 18 JAN to 20 JAN

Class M	01%	01%	01%
Class X	01%	01%	01%
Proton	01%	01%	01%
PCAF	GREEN

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  Observed       17 JAN 074
  Predicted   18 JAN-20 JAN  074/074/074
  90 Day Mean        17 JAN 076

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

OBSERVED AFR/AP 16 JAN  003/003
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 17 JAN  002/003
PREDICTED AFR/AP 18 JAN-20 JAN  005/005-005/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 JAN to 20 JAN

A. Middle Latitudes
Active	10%	10%	10%
Minor storm	05%	05%	05%
Major-severe storm	01%	01%	01%

B. High Latitudes
Active	10%	10%	10%
Minor storm	05%	05%	05%
Major-severe storm	01%	01%	01%

All times in UTC

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