Viewing archive of Wednesday, 13 August 1997

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1997 Aug 13 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 225 Issued at 2200Z on 13 AUG 1997

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. A FEW, LOW LEVEL B-CLASS FLARES WERE OBSERVED. REGION 8070 (S19W54) SHOWED STEADY GROWTH AND FREQUENT PLAGE FLUCTUATIONS OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. REGION 8071 (N26W06) ALSO SHOWED OCCASIONAL BRIGHTENINGS BUT WAS OTHERWISE VERY STABLE.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY LOW TO LOW. REGION 8070 COULD PRODUCE A C-CLASS EVENT IF THE CURRENT GROWTH TREND CONTINUES.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO ACTIVE. QUIET CONDITIONS PREDOMINATED FOR MOST OF THE DAY, BUT A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE CONDITIONS WAS OBSERVED FROM 0600-1200Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
III. Event Probabilities 14 AUG to 16 AUG
Class M05%05%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       13 AUG 082
  Predicted   14 AUG-16 AUG  084/085/085
  90 Day Mean        13 AUG 073
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 12 AUG  007/005
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 13 AUG  010/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 14 AUG-16 AUG  005/010-005/010-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 AUG to 16 AUG
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%10%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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