Viewing archive of Friday, 15 August 1997

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1997 Aug 15 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 227 Issued at 2200Z on 15 AUG 1997

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. NEW REGION 8075 (N29E46) WAS NUMBERED TODAY.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY LOW THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THERE REMAINS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED C-CLASS EVENT.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX HAS BEEN AT MODERATE TO HIGH FLUX LEVELS SINCE 15/1259Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED THE FIRST DAY OF THE FORECAST WITH QUIET CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
III. Event Probabilities 16 AUG to 18 AUG
Class M05%05%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       15 AUG 078
  Predicted   16 AUG-18 AUG  076/075/075
  90 Day Mean        15 AUG 073
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 14 AUG  018/017
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 15 AUG  010/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 16 AUG-18 AUG  010/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 AUG to 18 AUG
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%20%20%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%25%25%
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%

All times in UTC

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