Viewing archive of Thursday, 28 August 1997

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1997 Aug 28 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

******************************** CORRECTED COPY ************************************************ SDF Number 240 Issued at 2200Z on 28 AUG 1997

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. A SERIES OF B-CLASS EVENTS, THE LARGEST OF WHICH WAS A B9.3, WERE REPORTED. NONE WERE CORRELATED WITH OPTICAL FLARES. REGION 8076 (N29E24) CONTINUED ITS GROWTH AND IS NOW A DSI SPOT GROUP IN A BETA-GAMMA CONFIGURATION. NEW REGION 8079 (N15E10) WAS NUMBERED TODAY. THIS REGION IS APPROXIMATELY 9 DEGREES SOUTHWEST OF REGION 8078 (N16E12) AND APPEARS TO BE CONNECTED. HOWEVER, SPACE-BASED X-RAY IMAGES AND MAGNETIC ANALYSIS INDICATE A TRAILER POLARITY AREA WITHOUT SPOTS INTERCEDES BETWEEN THE TWO REGIONS, THUS LENDING CREDENCE TO THEIR SEPARATION.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY LOW TO LOW. REGION 8076 HAS A GOOD CHANCE OF PRODUCING ADDITIONAL C-CLASS EVENTS AND AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF PRODUCING AN ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENT.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z
THE GOEMAGNETIC FIELD RANGED FROM QUIET TO MINOR STORMING AT ALL LATITUDES. ACTIVE TO MINOR STORM LEVELS WERE OBSERVED BETWEEN 28/0300 AND 28/0900Z. THIS DISTURBANCE MAY HAVE BEEN THE RESULT OF A MODERATELY WELL-PLACE NORTHERN CORONAL HOLE EXTENSION. SPACE-BASED INSTRUMENTS INDICATE EARTH WAS IN A HIGH SPEED, LOW DENSITY CORONAL HOLE STREAM AT THE TIME OF THE DISTURBANCE.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.
III. Event Probabilities 29 AUG to 31 AUG
Class M05%05%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       28 AUG 091
  Predicted   29 AUG-31 AUG  092/092/092
  90 Day Mean        28 AUG 073
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 27 AUG  004/005
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 28 AUG  014/014
PREDICTED AFR/AP 29 AUG-31 AUG  010/005-010/008-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 AUG to 31 AUG
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%15%10%
Minor storm01%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
PLAIN CORRECTED MID LATITUDE MAJOR-SEVERE STORM PROBABILITY FOR DAY 1 99999

All times in UTC

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