Viewing archive of Wednesday, 3 September 1997

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1997 Sep 03 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 246 Issued at 2200Z on 03 SEP 1997

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8076 (N28W54) PRODUCED FIVE C-CLASS EVENTS. THE LARGEST WAS A C4/SF AT 02/2113Z. REGION 8076 DECAYED SLIGHTLY DURING THE PERIOD. NEW REGION 8083 (S28E56) EMERGED RAPIDLY AND PRODUCED SEVERAL SMALL SUBFLARES.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
GENERALLY, SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE AT A LOW LEVEL WITH OCCASIONAL C-CLASS FLARES FROM REGION 8076. CONTINUED RAPID GROWTH IN NEW REGION 8083 WILL RESULT IN C-CLASS EVENTS FROM THAT AREA ALSO. AN ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENT FROM REGION 8076 REMAINS A POSSIBILITY.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. SOME ISOLATED HIGH LATITUDE SITES EXPERIENCED BRIEF ACTIVE PERIODS. SOLAR WIND DATA SHOWED MODERATELY RAPID INCREASES IN VELOCITY AND DENSITY NEAR 02/2238Z. THIS DISTURBANCE IS POSSIBLY RELATED TO THE CME AND CORONAL MORETON WAVE OBSERVED LATE ON 29 AUG. AT PRESS TIME DENSITY AND VELOCITY INCREASES (TO 25 P/CC AND 500 KM/S) WERE OBSERVED. GOES-9 (W135) EXPERIENCED A MAGNETOPAUSE CROSSING BETWEEN 03/2100-2110Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD SHOULD BE AT UNSETTLED TO MINOR STORM LEVELS FOR 04 SEP AS THE CURRENT DISTURBANCE CONTINUES. ISOLATED MAJOR STORMING IS POSSIBLE. MOSTLY UNSETTLED LEVELS ARE EXPECTED ON 05 SEP WITH QUIET CONDITIONS RETURNING ON 06 SEP.
III. Event Probabilities 04 SEP to 06 SEP
Class M15%15%15%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       03 SEP 093
  Predicted   04 SEP-06 SEP  094/095/090
  90 Day Mean        03 SEP 075
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 02 SEP  005/005
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 03 SEP  014/017
PREDICTED AFR/AP 04 SEP-06 SEP  020/020-010/010-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 SEP to 06 SEP
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%20%10%
Minor storm25%10%05%
Major-severe storm10%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active40%20%10%
Minor storm30%10%05%
Major-severe storm10%01%01%

All times in UTC

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