Viewing archive of Wednesday, 10 September 1997

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1997 Sep 10 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 253 Issued at 2200Z on 10 SEP 1997

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. A SINGLE C1 FLARE WAS OBSERVED DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS, MOSTLY LIKELY ORIGINATING FROM REGION 8084 (N22W01). REGION 8084, A STABLE 22-SPOT 'DSI' BETA GROUP, ALSO GENERATED FOUR SUBFLARES DURING THE PERIOD. REGION 8083 (S28W35), A 19-SPOT 'DKO' BETA GROUP, PRODUCED A COUPLE OF SUBFLARES WHILE GROWING IN SIZE BY 30% TO 710 MILLIONTHS. REGION 8085 (S26E27), THE MOST COMPLEX AND POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT REGION ON THE VISIBLE DISK AS A 24-SPOT 'FKI' BETA-GAMMA GROUP, HAS STOPPED GROWING AT 610 MILLIONTHS AND IS CURRENTLY QUIET.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW TO MODERATE. THE PROBABILITY OF C-CLASS ACTIVITY FROM ANY OF REGIONS 8083, 8084, AND 8085 REMAINS HIGH. IN ADDITION, REGION 8085 HAS THE POTENTIAL TO GENERATE LOW TO MID-LEVEL M-CLASS ACTIVITY.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN MOSTLY UNSETTLED AT ALL LATITUDES FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX ALTERNATED BETWEEN NORMAL AND HIGH.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT 2 DAYS, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ACTIVE CONDITIONS AND ISOLATED PERIODS OF MINOR STORMING ON DAY 3 IN RESPONSE TO YESTERDAY'S HALO MASS EJECTION THAT ACCOMPANIED THE M1 FLARE FROM REGION 8083.
III. Event Probabilities 11 SEP to 13 SEP
Class M40%40%40%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       10 SEP 115
  Predicted   11 SEP-13 SEP  115/115/115
  90 Day Mean        10 SEP 077
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 09 SEP  019/019
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 10 SEP  017/015
PREDICTED AFR/AP 11 SEP-13 SEP  015/012-015/008-015/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 SEP to 13 SEP
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%20%30%
Minor storm10%10%15%
Major-severe storm01%01%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%20%30%
Minor storm10%15%20%
Major-severe storm01%01%05%

All times in UTC

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