Viewing archive of Tuesday, 16 September 1997

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1997 Sep 16 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 259 Issued at 2200Z on 16 SEP 1997

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8086 (N28E14) PRODUCED A SINGLE C1/SF FLARE AT 15/2125Z. THIS REGION IS SLOWLY DECAYING. AN UNCORRELATED C1 X-RAY BURST WAS DETECTED AT 16/2030Z. REGION 8084 (N22W77), STILL GROWING, PRODUCED A SERIES OF B-CLASS FLARES OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. REGION 8085 (25W55) WAS QUIET AND IS SLOWLY DECAYING.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW. REGIONS 8084 AND 8086 HAVE A DIMINISHED CHANCE OF CONTINUED C-CLASS FLARING AND AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED M-CLASS FLARE.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED AT ALL LATITUDES. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUX WAS HIGH.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.
III. Event Probabilities 17 SEP to 19 SEP
Class M10%10%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       16 SEP 095
  Predicted   17 SEP-19 SEP  094/090/086
  90 Day Mean        16 SEP 079
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 15 SEP  012/016
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 16 SEP  007/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 17 SEP-19 SEP  010/008-010/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 SEP to 19 SEP
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%10%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%10%10%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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