Viewing archive of Monday, 22 September 1997

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1997 Sep 22 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 265 Issued at 2200Z on 22 SEP 1997

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED AT A LOW LEVEL. REGION 8088 (S28E39) EMERGED AT A RAPID PACE AND PRODUCED THE MAJORITY OF THE C-CLASS FLARES. THE LARGEST WAS A C5/SF EVENT AT 22/1817Z. THIS REGION DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE MAGNETICALLY COMPLEX AT THIS TIME. REGION 8087 (S22E58) PRODUCED TWO SMALL C-CLASS FLARES DURING THE PERIOD.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD BE PREDOMINANTLY LOW WITH REGION 8088 BEING THE PRIMARY C-CLASS FLARE PRODUCER. SHOULD GROWTH HERE CONTINUE AT THE CURRENT PACE, SMALL M-CLASS EVENTS WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD BEGAN THE PERIOD AT ACTIVE LEVELS. SOLAR WIND DATA INDICATED A MODERATE DENSITY INCREASE (TO 40 P/CC) DURING THAT TIME. IT IS POSTULATED THAT THE EARTH RECEIVED AN OBLIQUE STRIKE FROM A CME OBSERVED FROM THE NORTHWEST LIMB ON 17 SEP. AFTER 22/0600Z THE FIELD RAPIDLY REACHED QUIET LEVELS AND CONTINUED SO FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS FORECAST TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. ISOLATED ACTIVE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT HIGH LATITUDES DURING 24-25 SEP.
III. Event Probabilities 23 SEP to 25 SEP
Class M20%30%35%
Class X01%01%05%
Proton01%01%05%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       22 SEP 089
  Predicted   23 SEP-25 SEP 091/093/095
  90 Day Mean        22 SEP 081
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 21 SEP  012/015
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 22 SEP  011/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 23 SEP-25 SEP  005/005-008/012-008/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 SEP to 25 SEP
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%15%15%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%20%20%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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