Viewing archive of Saturday, 27 September 1997

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1997 Sep 27 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 270 Issued at 2200Z on 27 SEP 1997

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. ONLY A FEW SMALL B-CLASS FLARES OCCURRED. REGION 8088 (S29W30) CONTINUES TO DIMINISH.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY LOW TO LOW. C-CLASS FLARES ARE POSSIBLE IN REGION 8088. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED M-CLASS FLARE IN 8088 AS WELL. MAJOR FLARES ARE NOT EXPECTED UNLESS THE RATE OF DECAY IN 8088 ACCELERATES APPRECIABLY.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD RANGED FROM QUIET TO ACTIVE. SOLAR WIND DATA DOES NOT YET CLEARLY INDICATE THE ARRIVAL OF THE EXPECTED SHOCK FROM THE CME'S OBSERVED ON SEP 23-24.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE, INCREASING TO STORM CONDITIONS WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IN RESPONSE TO THE ACTIVITY OBSERVED ON 23-24 SEP.
III. Event Probabilities 28 SEP to 30 SEP
Class M20%15%10%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       27 SEP 088
  Predicted   28 SEP-30 SEP  086/086/084
  90 Day Mean        27 SEP 082
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 26 SEP  004/004
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 27 SEP  015/015
PREDICTED AFR/AP 28 SEP-30 SEP  030/020-020/020-015/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 SEP to 30 SEP
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%30%30%
Minor storm15%15%10%
Major-severe storm05%05%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%30%30%
Minor storm15%15%10%
Major-severe storm05%05%01%

All times in UTC

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