Viewing archive of Monday, 29 September 1997

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1997 Sep 29 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 272 Issued at 2200Z on 29 SEP 1997

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8088 (S29W55) PRODUCED THE LARGEST FLARE OF THE PAST DAY, A C2/SF AT 29/1624Z. THIS REGION IS DECAYING SLOWLY. NEWLY NUMBERED REGION 8089 (N20W44) IS ASSOCIATED WITH EXTENSIVE SCATTERED PLAGE AND A LONG WINDING FILAMENT CHANNEL. TODAY'S 10.7 CM SOLAR FLUX VALUE (90 SFU) WAS MEASURED DURING A B6 X-RAY FLARE AND COULD BE ENHANCED ABOVE THE BACKGROUND LEVEL.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW. ADDITIONAL C-CLASS FLARES ARE POSSIBLE IN REGION 8088.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD RANGED FROM QUIET TO ACTIVE. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX WAS MODERATE TO HIGH.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
III. Event Probabilities 30 SEP to 02 OCT
Class M05%05%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       29 SEP 090
  Predicted   30 SEP-02 OCT  086/084/084
  90 Day Mean        29 SEP 082
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 28 SEP  013/014
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 29 SEP  010/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 30 SEP-02 OCT  010/008-010/008-010/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 SEP to 02 OCT
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%20%15%
Minor storm10%10%05%
Major-severe storm05%05%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%30%15%
Minor storm15%15%10%
Major-severe storm05%05%01%

All times in UTC

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