Viewing archive of Wednesday, 1 October 1997

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1997 Oct 01 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 274 Issued at 2200Z on 01 OCT 1997

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30-2100Z to 01-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. NO SIGNIFICANT FLARES OCCURRED. NEW REGION 8091 (N22E72), CURRENTLY A 6-SPOT 'BXO' BETA GROUP, WAS NUMBERED TODAY. REGION 8091 IS THE RETURN OF OLD REGION 8084, WHICH GENERATED SEVERAL C-CLASS EVENTS AND TWO M-CLASS EVENTS DURING IT'S INITIAL ROTATION. REGION 8090 (S27E55) REMAINS STABLE AS A SINGLE SPOT 'HSX' ALPHA.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY LOW TO LOW. BASED ON IT'S PAST HISTORY, REGION 8091 HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR GROWTH AND MODERATE C-CLASS ACTIVITY.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30-2100Z to 01-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN UNSETTLED TO MAJOR STORM FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS, MOST LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO THE 'HALO' CORONAL MASS EJECTION DOCUMENTED ON 27 SEPTEMBER. ACTIVITY AT MIDDLE LATITUDES PEAKED AT MAJOR STORM LEVELS DURING THE 0900-1200Z INTERVAL, DECREASING TO UNSETTLED THEREAFTER. ACTIVITY AT HIGHER LATITUDES REMAINED IN THE MINOR TO MAJOR STORM RANGE THROUGH THE 01/1500-1800Z INTERVAL, BEFORE DROPPING DOWN TO UNSETTLED.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS, WITH THE CHANCE FOR ISOLATED PERIODS OF ACTIVE CONDITIONS.
III. Event Probabilities 02 OCT to 04 OCT
Class M05%05%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       01 OCT 087
  Predicted   02 OCT-04 OCT  090/092/092
  90 Day Mean        01 OCT 082
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 30 SEP  009/007
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 01 OCT  028/045
PREDICTED AFR/AP 02 OCT-04 OCT  010/015-005/010-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 OCT to 04 OCT
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%15%10%
Minor storm10%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%15%10%
Minor storm10%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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