Viewing archive of Saturday, 18 October 1997
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1997 Oct 18 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 291 Issued at 2200Z on 18 OCT 1997IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. NO SIGNIFICANT FLARES
OCCURRED.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LOW.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED. ISOLATED ACTIVE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE ON OCT 20 OR 21. THIS ACTIVITY IS FORECAST FROM THE CME
OBSERVED ON THE SW LIMB ASSOCIATED WITH THE B1 LDE AT 16/2147Z. MOST
OF THIS CME IS EXPECTED TO MISS THE EARTH DUE TO ITS APPARENT
DIRECTION AND SURMISED ORIGIN AT (OR JUST BEHIND) THE WEST LIMB.
III. Event Probabilities 19 OCT to 21 OCT
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 18 OCT 087 Predicted 19 OCT-21 OCT 088/088/090 90 Day Mean 18 OCT 086
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 17 OCT 006/005 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 18 OCT 004/004 PREDICTED AFR/AP 19 OCT-21 OCT 005/005-015/008-015/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 OCT to 21 OCT
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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