Viewing archive of Monday, 27 October 1997

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1997 Oct 27 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 300 Issued at 2200Z on 27 OCT 1997

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. SENSORS DETECTED A SERIES OF OPTICALLY UNCORRELATED MINOR B-CLASS X-RAY EVENTS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. REGION 8099 (N19E37) PRODUCED A SINGLE SUBFAINT FLARE. NEW REGION 8100 (S21E67), A NEW CSO SPOT GROUP, WAS NUMBERED TODAY. REGION 8098 (S23W43) HAS DEVELOPED A BXO SPOT GROUP ONCE MORE.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN VERY LOW. REGIONS 8099 AND 8100 HAVE AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF PRODUCING OCCASIONAL ISOLATED C-CLASS FLARES.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO ACTIVE AT ALL LATITUDES. MID LATITUDES SAW A SINGLE PERIOD OF MINOR STORMING AT ABOUT 27/0300Z. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUX RANGED FROM NORMAL TO HIGH LEVELS.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.
III. Event Probabilities 28 OCT to 30 OCT
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       27 OCT 084
  Predicted   28 OCT-30 OCT  084/084/084
  90 Day Mean        27 OCT 087
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 26 OCT  015/014
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 27 OCT  015/015
PREDICTED AFR/AP 28 OCT-30 OCT  010/010-010/010-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 OCT to 30 OCT
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%25%25%
Minor storm05%05%15%
Major-severe storm01%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%25%30%
Minor storm05%15%20%
Major-severe storm01%05%10%

All times in UTC

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