Viewing archive of Wednesday, 4 March 1998

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 Mar 04 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 063 Issued at 2200Z on 04 MAR 1998

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8171 (S24W62) APPEARS TO BE MATURING AS A MODERATELY-SIZED E-TYPE SUNSPOT GROUP WITHOUT APPRECIABLE MAGNETIC COMPLEXITY. THE REGION CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SMALL C-CLASS FLARES, THE LARGEST OF WHICH WAS A C2/SF AT 04/0719Z. A PARTIAL-HALO CME WAS OBSERVED IN THE LASCO CORONOGRAPH AT ABOUT 03/0900Z. REGION 8172 (N22W35) IS GROWING SLOWLY.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW. C-CLASS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE IN REGION 8171.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ATLTITUDE WAS MODERATE.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
III. Event Probabilities 05 MAR to 07 MAR
Class M05%05%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       04 MAR 102
  Predicted   05 MAR-07 MAR  098/096/094
  90 Day Mean        04 MAR 095
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 03 MAR  003/004
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 04 MAR  010/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 05 MAR-07 MAR  010/012-005/008-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 MAR to 07 MAR
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%

All times in UTC

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Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

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