Viewing archive of Wednesday, 4 March 1998
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 Mar 04 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 063 Issued at 2200Z on 04 MAR 1998IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8171 (S24W62) APPEARS TO
BE MATURING AS A MODERATELY-SIZED E-TYPE SUNSPOT GROUP WITHOUT
APPRECIABLE MAGNETIC COMPLEXITY. THE REGION CONTINUES TO PRODUCE
SMALL C-CLASS FLARES, THE LARGEST OF WHICH WAS A C2/SF AT 04/0719Z.
A PARTIAL-HALO CME WAS OBSERVED IN THE LASCO CORONOGRAPH AT ABOUT
03/0900Z. REGION 8172 (N22W35) IS GROWING SLOWLY.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW.
C-CLASS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE IN REGION 8171.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV
ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ATLTITUDE WAS MODERATE.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
III. Event Probabilities 05 MAR to 07 MAR
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 MAR 102 Predicted 05 MAR-07 MAR 098/096/094 90 Day Mean 04 MAR 095
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 03 MAR 003/004 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 04 MAR 010/008 PREDICTED AFR/AP 05 MAR-07 MAR 010/012-005/008-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 MAR to 07 MAR
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
Oulu, Rovaniemi, Sodankylä, UtsjokiReykjavik
Kirkenes, Tromsø
Murmansk
Kiruna, Luleå
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