Viewing archive of Sunday, 19 July 1998
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 Jul 19 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 200 Issued at 2200Z on 19 JUL 1998IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN LOW. A SINGLE C-CLASS X-RAY
EVENT OCCURRED TODAY AT 1845UT. REGION 8276 (S19E62) WAS NUMBERED
TODAY. OTHER REGIONS EXPERIENCED MEASURABLE GROWTH AND DECAY.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LOW TO LOW.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. ENERGETIC ELECTRONS
WERE AT MODERATE TO HIGH LEVELS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS. SOME
ACTIVE PERIODS ARE EXPECTED AFTER THIS TIME.
III. Event Probabilities 20 JUL to 22 JUL
| Class M | 15% | 20% | 20% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 JUL 102 Predicted 20 JUL-22 JUL 105/108/110 90 Day Mean 19 JUL 107
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 18 JUL 004/005 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 19 JUL 007/008 PREDICTED AFR/AP 20 JUL-22 JUL 007/008-010/010-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 JUL to 22 JUL
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 20% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 10% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
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