Viewing archive of Thursday, 13 August 1998

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 Aug 13 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 225 Issued at 2200Z on 13 AUG 1998

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8297 (N32W16) PRODUCED AN OPTICAL SUB-FLARE AT 13/0538UT AND HAS BEEN QUIET AND STABLE SINCE THEN. REGION 8299 (N15W01) HAS BEEN SHOWING PLAGE ENHANCEMENTS AND FLUCTUATIONS FOR MOST OF THE DAY. THIS REGION PRODUCED 3 C-CLASS X-RAY FLARES AND 5 OPTICAL SUB-FLARES. THE MAGNETIC CONFIGURATION HAS BECOME MORE COMPLEX, RESULTING IN A CKO BETA-GAMMA-DELTA SPOT GROUP. THE SIZE HAS REMAINED THE SAME AS YESTERDAY, AROUND 520 MILLIONTHS. REGION 8293 (S22W70) HAS SHOWN RENEWED ACTIVITY LATE IN THE DAY WITH 2 C-CLASS FLARES. THE LARGEST WAS A C9/SF AT 13/1756UT. THE MAUNA LOA SOLAR OBSERVATORY REPORTED A CORRESPONDING CME COMING OFF OF THE WEST LIMB AT S30 AT 13/1800UT. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY WAS NOTED AND THE REST OF THE REGIONS WERE QUIET AND STABLE
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW. REGIONS 8293 AND 8297 CAN BE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO PRODUCE ISOLATED C-CLASS FLARES. BOTH REGIONS ALSO HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRODUCING AN M-CLASS FLARE.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
III. Event Probabilities 14 AUG to 16 AUG
Class M30%20%25%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       13 AUG 137
  Predicted   14 AUG-16 AUG  140/135/130
  90 Day Mean        13 AUG 112
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 12 AUG  005/010
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 13 AUG  008/013
PREDICTED AFR/AP 14 AUG-16 AUG  005/008-005/008-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 AUG to 16 AUG
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%10%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%15%15%
Minor storm15%10%10%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%

All times in UTC

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