Viewing archive of Thursday, 10 September 1998
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 Sep 10 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 253 Issued at 2200Z on 10 SEP 1998IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z
SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW, BASED ON TWO SMALL UNCORRELATED
C-CLASS X-RAY EVENTS. IN ADDITION, MINOR SUBFLARES WERE REPORTED
FROM REGIONS 8328 (S17W08), 8329 (N14W18), AND 8333 (N12W41). WITH
TODAYS DEPARTURE OF REGION 8323 (S27W84) AROUND THE WEST LIMB,
REGIONS 8329, 11-SPOT 'ESO' BETA, AND 8331 (N26E24), 15-SPOT 'DAO'
BETA, ARE THE MOST COMPLEX OF THE SEVEN ACTIVE REGIONS CURRENTLY ON
THE VISIBLE DISK.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW,
WITH C-CLASS EVENTS POSSIBLE FROM ANY ONE OF REGIONS 8328, 8329,
8331, AND 8333.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET AT ALL LATITUDES FOR THE PAST 24
HOURS.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY QUIET, WITH ISOLATED PERIODS OF UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS, FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
III. Event Probabilities 11 SEP to 13 SEP
| Class M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 SEP 142 Predicted 11 SEP-13 SEP 140/135/130 90 Day Mean 10 SEP 124
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 09 SEP 006/008 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 10 SEP 005/009 PREDICTED AFR/AP 11 SEP-13 SEP 005/009-010/009-010/009
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 SEP to 13 SEP
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
Oulu, Rovaniemi, Sodankylä, UtsjokiReykjavik
Kirkenes, Tromsø
Murmansk
Kiruna, Luleå
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