Viewing archive of Tuesday, 6 October 1998

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 Oct 06 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 279 Issued at 2200Z on 06 OCT 1998

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. REGION 8350 (N19E14) PRODUCED THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY, SEVERAL SMALL B CLASS SUB-FLARES. TWO REGIONS WERE NUMBERED TODAY, REGION 8352 (S12E30) AND REGION 8353 (N20E68), BOTH ARE SMALL SPOT GROUPS.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY LOW.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET. A SMALL DISCONTINUITY (SHARP CHANGE IN THE VELOCITY, DENSITY, AND MAGNETIC FIELD) WAS OBSERVED IN THE SOLAR WIND AT ACE AROUND 1530UT. THIS RESULTED IN A SMALL IMPULSE IN THE MAGNETIC FIELD AT 1630UT FOLLOWED BY MINOR CHANGES IN THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUIET.
III. Event Probabilities 07 OCT to 09 OCT
Class M05%05%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       06 OCT 117
  Predicted   07 OCT-09 OCT  119/120/120
  90 Day Mean        06 OCT 129
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 05 OCT  002/007
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 06 OCT  003/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 07 OCT-09 OCT  005/008-005/008-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 OCT to 09 OCT
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%10%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%10%10%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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