Viewing archive of Tuesday, 27 October 1998
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 Oct 27 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 300 Issued at 2200Z on 27 OCT 1998IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z
SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN VERY LOW. NO SIGNIFICANT FLARES
OCCURRED. REGION 8369 (N18E31), A 7-SPOT 'CAO' BETA GROUP, IS THE
ONLY ACTIVE REGION CURRENTLY ON THE VISIBLE DISK.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW,
WITH THE CHANCE FOR C-CLASS X-RAY ACTIVITY FROM REGION 8369.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN MOSTLY QUIET FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS. A
SINGLE PERIOD OF UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WAS OBSERVED AT HIGH LATITUDES
DURING THE INTERVAL 26/2100-2400Z. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON
FLUX CONTINUES IN THE HIGH RANGE.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
III. Event Probabilities 28 OCT to 30 OCT
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 27 OCT 103 Predicted 28 OCT-30 OCT 100/100/102 90 Day Mean 27 OCT 131
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 26 OCT 003/007 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 27 OCT 005/008 PREDICTED AFR/AP 28 OCT-30 OCT 010/008-010/008-010/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 OCT to 30 OCT
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
Iqaluit, NUNuuk
Tórshavn
Reykjavik
Trondheim
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