Viewing archive of Tuesday, 3 November 1998

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 Nov 03 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 307 Issued at 2200Z on 03 NOV 1998

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. THIS WAS CAUSED BY A SINGLE M1/2N FLARE THAT OCCURRED ON 03/1933UT IN REGION 8375 (N18E07). FOR THE REST OF THE DAY ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. REGION 8375 WAS THE MOST ACTIVE REGION WITH A 22 SPOT CAO, BETA-GAMMA GROUP. A NEW REGION 8378 (N17E76) WAS NUMBERED. IT IS ROTATING ONTO THE EAST LIMB AND CURRENTLY IS A SINGLE SPOT HAX, BETA GROUP. THE REST OF THE DISK AND LIMB WAS MOSTLY QUIET AND STABLE.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW WITH THE REMOTE POSSIBILITY OF REGION 8375 PRODUCING AN ISOLATED M-CLASS FLARE.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FILED WAS QUIET.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF ACTIVE CONDITIONS OCCURRING ON 05 NOVEMBER DUE TO THE M1 EVENT ON 03/1933UT.
III. Event Probabilities 04 NOV to 06 NOV
Class M25%25%25%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton05%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       03 NOV 152
  Predicted   04 NOV-06 NOV  135/140/140
  90 Day Mean        03 NOV 131
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 02 NOV  003/005
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 03 NOV  007/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 04 NOV-06 NOV  008/008-020/008-010/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 NOV to 06 NOV
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%35%15%
Minor storm05%15%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%50%20%
Minor storm05%25%15%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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