Viewing archive of Tuesday, 1 December 1998

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 Dec 01 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 335 Issued at 2200Z on 01 DEC 1998

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30-2100Z to 01-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. FLARES OCCURRED IN REGIONS 8392 (S22W59), 8395 (N20W01), 8397 (N14E46), AND 8402 (N17E64). REGION 8402 IS THE NEWLY NUMBERED AREA ROTATING ONTO THE DISK BEHIND REGION 8397. YET ANOTHER SUNSPOT GROUP APPEARS TO BE BEHIND REGION 8402 AND WILL MOST LIKELY BE NUMBERED AFTER MORE OF IT BECOMES VISIBLE. REGION 8395 WAS THE MOST ACTIVE SUNSPOT GROUP OVER THE PAST DAY, PRODUCING SEVERAL C-CLASS FLARES. THIS REGION APPEARS TO BE SHOWING SIGNS OF SIMPLIFICATION.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW TO MODERATE. C-CLASS ACTIVITY IS PROBABLE FROM REGIONS 8395, 8397, AND 8402. AN ISOLATED MAJOR FLARE IS POSSIBLE IN THESE REGIONS AS WELL.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30-2100Z to 01-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
III. Event Probabilities 02 DEC to 04 DEC
Class M40%40%40%
Class X10%10%10%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       01 DEC 163
  Predicted   02 DEC-04 DEC  162/160/160
  90 Day Mean        01 DEC 131
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 30 NOV  012/013
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 01 DEC  012/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 02 DEC-04 DEC  010/012-010/010-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 DEC to 04 DEC
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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