Viewing archive of Saturday, 2 January 1999

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1999 Jan 02 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 002 Issued at 2200Z on 02 JAN 1999

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY DECLINED TO LOW LEVELS. REGION 8421 (N26W53) REMAINED LARGE AND MAGNETICALLY COMPLEX, BUT SHOWED NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN SIZE OR STRUCTURE. IT PRODUCED ISOLATED SUBFLARES DURING THE PERIOD. ALL REMAINING SPOT GROUPS WERE SMALL AND STABLE INCLUDING NEWLY NUMBERED REGIONS 8428 (N23W15) AND 8429 (N34E38).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW TO MODERATE. REGION 8421 MAY PRODUCE AN ISOLATED M-CLASS FLARE. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A MAJOR FLARE FOM THIS REGION.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS.
III. Event Probabilities 03 JAN to 05 JAN
Class M50%50%50%
Class X10%10%10%
Proton10%10%10%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       02 JAN 160
  Predicted   03 JAN-05 JAN  160/155/155
  90 Day Mean        02 JAN 137
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 01 JAN  004/005
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 02 JAN  006/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 03 JAN-05 JAN  005/010-005/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 JAN to 05 JAN
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%10%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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Current data suggests there is a moderate possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Fairbanks, AK

Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Edmonton, AB, Gillam, MB, Saskatoon, SK, Whitehorse, YT, Yellowknife, NT
Anchorage, AK, Juneau, AK
The solar wind speed is currently high (765.4 km/sec.)
The Disturbance Storm Time index predicts moderate storm conditions right now (-54nT)

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