Viewing archive of Sunday, 6 December 1998
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 Dec 06 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 340 Issued at 2200Z on 06 DEC 1998IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z
SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. SIX MINOR C-CLASS X-RAY EVENTS
OCCURRED, FOLLOWING A PATTERN THAT HAS PERSISTED FOR THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS. TWO NEW REGIONS EMERGED OVERNIGHT, 8404 (S22E02), A
SMALL BUT GROWING D-TYPE GROUP, AND 8405 (S16E64), A SMALL C-TYPE
GROUP.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
LOW.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE PAST 24
HOURS. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX HAS BEEN IN THE MODERATE
TO HIGH RANGE.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
III. Event Probabilities 07 DEC to 09 DEC
| Class M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 DEC 142 Predicted 07 DEC-09 DEC 144/144/146 90 Day Mean 06 DEC 131
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 05 DEC 009/012 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 06 DEC 010/010 PREDICTED AFR/AP 07 DEC-09 DEC 008/010-008/010-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 DEC to 09 DEC
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
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