Viewing archive of Thursday, 28 January 1999

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1999 Jan 28 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 028 Issued at 2200Z on 28 JAN 1999

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN LOW. THE CURRENT ACTIVE REGIONS HAVE SHOWN LITTLE CHANGE AS THEY PRODUCE MINOR FLARES.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN VERY LOW TO LOW WITH SMALL X-RAY EVENTS REACHING TO ABOUT CLASS C THRESHOLDS FROM THE CURRENT ACTIVE REGIONS. AT THIS POINT, THE BEST PROSPECTS FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY MIGHT BE IN ASSOCIATION WITH FILAMENT ACTIVITY. THE LONG FILAMENT STRUCTURES NOW VISIBLE ON THE SOLAR FACE ARE INDICATIVE OF CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT AND RESTRUCTURING OF LARGE SCALE FIELDS AS THE NEW CYCLE CONTINUES TO BUILD.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z
GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY HAS BEEN UNSETTLED. ENERGETIC PARTICLE FLUXES CONTINUE THEIR DECLINE FROM THE SMALL ENHANCEMENT OF JANUARY 25 AND ARE NEARING THEIR NORMAL QUIET LEVELS.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
III. Event Probabilities 29 JAN to 31 JAN
Class M10%10%10%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       28 JAN 119
  Predicted   29 JAN-31 JAN  112/110/110
  90 Day Mean        28 JAN 144
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 27 JAN  006/009
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 28 JAN  007/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 29 JAN-31 JAN  006/008-005/005-006/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 JAN to 31 JAN
A. Middle Latitudes
Active05%05%05%
Minor storm02%02%02%
Major-severe storm02%02%02%
B. High Latitudes
Active06%06%07%
Minor storm03%03%03%
Major-severe storm02%02%02%

All times in UTC

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