Viewing archive of Saturday, 6 February 1999
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1999 Feb 06 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 037 Issued at 2200Z on 06 FEB 1999IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z
SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED AT VERY LOW LEVELS WITH
ISOLATED B-CLASS X-RAY FLARES, NONE OF WHICH WERE OPTICALLY
CORRELATED. THERE WERE TWO SPOTTED REGIONS ON THE DISK, INCLUDING
NEWLY NUMBERED REGION 8455 (S19E33). BOTH REGIONS WERE SMALL,
STRUCTURALLY SIMPLE, AND STABLE. A 23-DEGREE FILAMENT, LAST SEEN
CENTERED NEAR S54W34, DISAPPEARED DURING 06/1219 - 1540Z. TODAY'S
10.7 CM RADIO FLUX READING WAS THE LOWEST SINCE LAST JULY.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
AT VERY LOW LEVELS DURING THE FIRST DAY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AN
INCREASE IN ACTIVITY LEVELS IS POSSIBLE DURING THE REMAINING DAYS
WITH THE EXPECTED RETURN OF OLD REGIONS 8439 (S23, L = 272) AND 8440
(N19, L = 265).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS FOR MOST OF
THE PERIOD. HOWEVER, ACTIVE LEVELS WERE DETECTED AT MIDDLE LATITUDES
DURING 06/0500 - 0600Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS DURING THE FIRST TWO
DAYS. ACTIVE LEVELS ARE POSSIBLE BEGINNING 09 FEBRUARY IN RESPONSE
TO RECENT FILAMENT DISAPPEARANCES.
III. Event Probabilities 07 FEB to 09 FEB
| Class M | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 FEB 099 Predicted 07 FEB-09 FEB 105/115/125 90 Day Mean 06 FEB 141
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 05 FEB 007/008 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 06 FEB 012/011 PREDICTED AFR/AP 07 FEB-09 FEB 008/011-008/011-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 FEB to 09 FEB
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a moderate possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
Whitehorse, YTFairbanks, AK
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
Edmonton, AB, Gillam, MB, Saskatoon, SK, Yellowknife, NTAnchorage, AK, Juneau, AK
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