Viewing archive of Sunday, 7 February 1999

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1999 Feb 07 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 038 Issued at 2200Z on 07 FEB 1999

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED AT VERY LOW LEVELS. ISOLATED B-CLASS X-RAY FLARES OCCURRED INCLUDING A SMALL OPTICAL FLARE FROM A SPOTLESS PLAGE REGION NEAR N21E15. ALL SPOT GROUPS WERE SMALL, QUIET, AND STABLE INCLUDING NEWLY NUMBERED REGION 8456 (N23E65).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
A GRADUAL INCREASE TO LOW LEVELS IS EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD WITH THE EXPECTED RETURN OF OLD REGIONS 8439 (S23, L = 272) AND 8440 (N19, L = 265).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS DURING MOST OF THE PERIOD. HOWEVER, ACTIVE LEVELS WERE DETECTED AT SOME MIDDLE AND HIGH LATITUDE STATIONS DURING 07/0500 - 0600Z, 07/1000 - 1200Z, AND 07/1400 - 1500Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT MOSTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS ON THE FIRST DAY. AN INCREASE TO UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE LEVELS IS EXPECTED DURING 09 FEBRUARY IN RESPONSE TO RECENT FILAMENT DISAPPEARANCES. ACTIVE LEVELS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ON 10 FEBRUARY DUE TO CORONAL HOLE EFFECTS. THE GT 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEO-SYNCHRONOUS ALTITUDE MAY REACH HIGH LEVELS DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
III. Event Probabilities 08 FEB to 10 FEB
Class M10%10%10%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       07 FEB 110
  Predicted   08 FEB-10 FEB  115/120/125
  90 Day Mean        07 FEB 141
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 06 FEB  011/012
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 07 FEB  012/014
PREDICTED AFR/AP 08 FEB-10 FEB  010/012-015/015-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 FEB to 10 FEB
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%30%30%
Minor storm05%10%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%35%35%
Minor storm10%15%15%
Major-severe storm01%05%05%

All times in UTC

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