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Viewing archive of Thursday, 18 March 1999

Solar activity report

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Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1999 Mar 18 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 077 Issued at 2200Z on 18 MAR 1999

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. REGION 8485 (N24W64) PRODUCED AN M3 X-RAY FLARE WITH MINOR RADIO BURSTS AT 18/0831Z. THIS REGION WAS ALSO RESPONSIBLE FOR A C9 X-RAY FLARE AT 17/2156Z AND PRODUCED SEVERAL OTHER C-CLASS EVENTS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. REGION 8485 RETAINS MODERATE COMPLEXITY AND SIZE AS IT APPROACHES THE WEST LIMB. REGION 8488 (S26W17) GREW IN WHITE LIGHT AREA, DEVELOPING A D-TYPE GROUP WITH SOME COMPLEXITY, BUT HAS YET TO PRODUCE ANY SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY. ANOTHER STRONG CORONAL MASS EJECTION OCCURRED OFF THE NE LIMB, BUT NO MATERIAL APPEARED EARTHBOUND. NEW REGION 8491 (N19W09) WAS NUMBERED TODAY.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO MODERATE WITH ISOLATED M-CLASS FLARES FROM REGION 8485.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS MOSTLY QUIET WITH ISOLATED UNSETTLED PERIODS LATE IN THE DAY.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
III. Event Probabilities 19 MAR to 21 MAR
Class M50%50%25%
Class X10%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       18 MAR 148
  Predicted   19 MAR-21 MAR  145/135/130
  90 Day Mean        18 MAR 142
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 17 MAR  005/005
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 18 MAR  010/012
PREDICTED AFR/AP 19 MAR-21 MAR  012/010-005/008-005/007
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 MAR to 21 MAR
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%30%20%
Minor storm10%10%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active35%35%30%
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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G1 - Minor geomagnetic storm

Observed Kp: 5
Threshold reached: 23:35 UTC

Current data suggests there is a high possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Iqaluit, NU
Nuuk
Tórshavn
Oulu, Rovaniemi, Sodankylä, Utsjoki
Reykjavik
Tromsø
Kiruna, Luleå

Current data suggests there is a moderate possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Trondheim
Sundsvall, Umeå

Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Kuopio
Bergen

Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following middle latitude regions in the near future

Thunder Bay, ON
Tampere, Turku
Petrozavodsk
The strength of the interplanetary magnetic field is high (20.43nT), the direction is moderately South (-10.75nT).

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