Viewing archive of Monday, 16 August 1999

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1999 Aug 16 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 228 Issued at 2200Z on 16 AUG 1999

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8668 (N23E40) PRODUCED A COUPLE MINOR C-CLASS X-RAY EVENTS AT 16/0034Z AND 16/2029Z. THE REGION DISPLAYED LITTLE CHANGE SINCE YESTERDAY. NO NEW REGIONS WERE NUMBERED.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW. C-CLASS EVENTS ARE MOST PROBABLE FROM REGION 8668.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD RANGED FROM QUIET TO MINOR STORM LEVELS. SOLAR WIND VELOCITIES STARTED TO INCREASE AROUND 16/0400Z AND REACHED OVER 700 KM/S. DENSITY DECREASED AT THE SAME TIME INDICATING A POSSIBLE HIGH STREAM CORONAL HOLE IMPACTING THE EARTH.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE PREDOMINATELY UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS, BECOMING MORE QUIET TO UNSETTLED THE THIRD DAY. THIS INCREASED GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY IS BASED ON THE POSSIBLE CONTINUATION OF A HIGH SPEED CORONAL HOLE STREAM IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE SUN.
III. Event Probabilities 17 AUG to 19 AUG
Class M05%05%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       16 AUG 131
  Predicted   17 AUG-19 AUG  135/138/145
  90 Day Mean        16 AUG 163
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 15 AUG  013/015
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 16 AUG  025/035
PREDICTED AFR/AP 17 AUG-19 AUG  015/012-015/017-015/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 AUG to 19 AUG
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%25%25%
Minor storm15%15%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active35%35%35%
Minor storm25%20%15%
Major-severe storm05%05%01%

All times in UTC

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