Viewing archive of Monday, 30 August 1999

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1999 Aug 30 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 242 Issued at 2200Z on 30 AUG 1999

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY BECAME MODERATE. REGION 8681 (N21W16) PRODUCED AN M3/2B AT 30/1805Z. THIS EVENT WAS ACCOMPANIED BY A MODERATE INTENSITY TYPE II. THE GROWTH RATE SLOWED IN THIS REGION BUT IT MAINTAINED ITS ANOMALOUS MAGNETIC CONFIGURATION. REGION 8674 (S24W50) PRODUCED A C9/1N AT 30/1448Z. THIS REGION EXHIBITED MODERATE DECAY IN SUNSPOT NUMBER AND AREAL COVERAGE. NOTIFICATION WAS RECEIVED OF A PARTIAL HALO CME EVENT WITH THE X1 FLARE AT 28/1805Z FROM REGION 8674. HOWEVER, THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE MATERIAL WAS SEEN TO MOVE OUT OF THE ECLIPTIC AND THE EVENT IS DIFFICULT TO INTERPRET. IT IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME IF THERE WAS A HALO CME WITH THE M3 FLARE ABOVE FROM REGION 8681.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN PREDOMINANTLY MODERATE WITH M-CLASS EVENTS POSSIBLE FROM REGIONS 8674 AND 8681. X-CLASS EVENTS REMAIN POSSIBLE FROM REGION 8674 BUT THAT POSSIBILITY DECREASES AS THE REGION DECAYS.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE 30/0800-1200Z INTERVAL. DURING THAT TIME ACTIVE TO MINOR STORM CONDITIONS WERE OBSERVED. THIS DISTURBANCE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE RELATED TO THE IMPACT OF A CORONAL MASS EJECTION. RATHER, BZ TURNED SOUTHWARD PRIOR TO THAT TIME WHILE OTHER SOLAR WIND PARAMETERS REMAINED UNREMARKABLE. ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUXES AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT REMAINED AT HIGH LEVELS.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD SHOULD RANGE FROM UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE LEVELS ON 31 AUG. ISOLATED MINOR STORMING IS POSSIBLE. THIS DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED IN RESPONSE TO THE PARTIAL HALO CME/X1 FLARE MENTIONED ABOVE. HAD THE CME BEEN AIMED DIRECTLY AT THE EARTH, A MUCH LARGER STORM WOULD BE EXPECTED. UNSETTLED TO SLIGHTLY ACTIVE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR 01-02 SEP. THE FORECAST FOR 02 SEP WILL BECOME ELEVATED IF NOTIFICATION IS RECEIVED THAT THE M3/2B EVENT TODAY PRODUCED A HALO OR PARTIAL HALO CME. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF AN ENERGETIC SOLAR PROTON EVENT DURING THE PERIOD.
III. Event Probabilities 31 AUG to 02 SEP
Class M80%80%80%
Class X30%30%30%
Proton25%25%25%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       30 AUG 198
  Predicted   31 AUG-02 SEP  194/185/165
  90 Day Mean        30 AUG 169
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 29 AUG  006/010
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 30 AUG  013/015
PREDICTED AFR/AP 31 AUG-02 SEP  015/015-012/012-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 AUG to 02 SEP
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%30%30%
Minor storm15%15%15%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%30%30%
Minor storm15%15%15%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%

All times in UTC

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