Viewing archive of Wednesday, 29 September 1999

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1999 Sep 29 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 272 Issued at 2200Z on 29 SEP 1999

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. ONE MINOR C-CLASS EVENT OCCURRED AT 29/1605Z WITH NO OPTICAL CORRELATION. NEW REGIONS 8712 (S13W06), 8713 (S13E62), AND 8714 (N11E72) WERE NUMBERED.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD RANGED FROM QUIET TO MINOR STORM CONDITIONS DUE TO A HIGH SPEED CORONAL HOLE STREAM. THE MINOR STORM CONDITIONS WERE OBSERVED DURING ONE PERIOD FROM 29/0600 - 0900Z. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WAS AT HIGH LEVELS.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO ACTIVE. ISOLATED MINOR STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER LATITUDES DURING THE FIRST DAY OF THE PERIOD.
III. Event Probabilities 30 SEP to 02 OCT
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       29 SEP 125
  Predicted   30 SEP-02 OCT  125/120/122
  90 Day Mean        29 SEP 158
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 28 SEP  020/020
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 29 SEP  020/015
PREDICTED AFR/AP 30 SEP-02 OCT  012/015-010/015-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 SEP to 02 OCT
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%15%15%
Minor storm15%10%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%20%20%
Minor storm20%15%15%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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