Viewing archive of Saturday, 9 October 1999
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1999 Oct 09 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 282 Issued at 2200Z on 09 OCT 1999IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. NEW REGION 8729 (N11E67) WAS
NUMBERED.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
LOW THROUGH THE PERIOD.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET THROUGH THE PERIOD.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THESE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN RESPONSE TO RECURRENT CORONAL HOLE
EFFECTS.
III. Event Probabilities 10 OCT to 12 OCT
| Class M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 OCT 153 Predicted 10 OCT-12 OCT 155/158/160 90 Day Mean 09 OCT 154
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 08 OCT 008/008 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 09 OCT 005/007 PREDICTED AFR/AP 10 OCT-12 OCT 020/020-020/020-020/025
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 OCT to 12 OCT
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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