Viewing archive of Thursday, 11 November 1999

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1999 Nov 11 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 315 Issued at 2200Z on 11 NOV 1999

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED MODERATE. EARLY IN THE PERIOD, REGION 8753 (N18W36) PRODUCED AN M1/1N FLARE AT 10/2213Z. MODERATE CENTIMETRIC RADIO BURSTS ACCOMPANIED THIS EVENT. DECAY OCCURRED IN THIS REGION IN THE PAST 24 HOURS. REGION 8759 (N10E20) GENERATED A C8/1N AT 11/1449Z. THIS REGION ALSO DECAYED IN WHITE LIGHT AREA DURING THE PERIOD. REGION 8760 (N13W17) PRODUCED SEVERAL SUBFLARES AND CONTINUED TO EMERGE BUT AT A SLOW RATE. A MODERATE SIZE NEW REGION, 8765 (S10E73), ROTATED OVER THE LIMB BEHIND REGION 8763 (S14E60). REGION 8763 PRODUCED SEVERAL LOW LEVEL C-CLASS FLARES.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY MODERATE. REGIONS 8759 AND 8760 REMAIN AS THE LIKELY SOURCES OF M-CLASS FLARES DUE TO THEIR SIZE AND SLIGHTLY MIXED MAGNETIC FIELDS. HOWEVER, SEVERAL OTHER LESSER REGIONS COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENTS. THERE REMAINS A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF A MAJOR FLARE FROM REGIONS 8759 AND 8760.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS AT QUIET TO MINOR STORM LEVELS. THE MOST DISTURBED PERIOD WAS FROM 11/0300-1200Z. SOLAR WIND VELOCITY INCREASED TO AROUND 650 KM/S AND DENSITY REMAINED LOW INDICATING THE EARTH REMAINS IN THE CORONAL HOLE STREAM MENTIONED OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS. ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUXES AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT REACHED HIGH LEVELS DURING THE PERIOD. NO SOHO CORONAGRAPH DATA HAVE BEEN AVAILABLE SINCE 08 NOV.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD SHOULD REMAIN DISTURBED ON 12 NOV. ACTIVE TO MINOR STORM LEVELS ARE EXPECTED ON THAT DAY. ON 13 NOV, THE FIELD SHOULD BECOME UNSETTLED TO SLIGHTLY ACTIVE AS THE CURRENT CORONAL HOLE RELATED DISTURBANCE SUBSIDES. MOSTLY QUIET CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR 14 NOV. ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUXES AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
III. Event Probabilities 12 NOV to 14 NOV
Class M70%70%70%
Class X15%15%15%
Proton10%10%10%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       11 NOV 240
  Predicted   12 NOV-14 NOV  242/245/245
  90 Day Mean        11 NOV 159
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 10 NOV  013/012
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 11 NOV  023/025
PREDICTED AFR/AP 12 NOV-14 NOV  018/018-010/010-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 NOV to 14 NOV
A. Middle Latitudes
Active40%30%10%
Minor storm25%15%05%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active40%30%15%
Minor storm30%15%05%
Major-severe storm10%01%01%

All times in UTC

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