Viewing archive of Sunday, 14 November 1999
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1999 Nov 14 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 318 Issued at 2200Z on 14 NOV 1999IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS HIGH. SEVERAL M-CLASS EVENTS
OCCURRED DURING THE PERIOD. REGION 8763 (S16E18) PRODUCED AN M8/2B
AT 13/0801Z, REGION 8766 (N17E57) PRODUCED AN M5/2N AT 13/1607Z,
REGION 8765 (S14E32) PRODUCED AN M2/SN AT 13/1623Z, REGION 8759
(N12W20) PRODUCED AN M1/SF AT 13/1704Z, AND ONE OPTICALLY
UNCORRELATED M2 OCCURRED AT 13/1809Z. REGION 8765 IS THE LARGEST
REGION ON THE DISK WITH AN AREA OF 640 MILLIONTHS. THE MOST DYNAMIC
REGION IS REGION 8766 WHICH CONTAINS A STRONG DELTA CONFIGURATION.
TWO NEW REGIONS WERE NUMBERED TODAY AS REGION 8767 (N44W28) AND
REGION 8768 (N16E33).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
MODERATE FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD. REGIONS 8759, 8763, 8765, AND 8766
ALL HAVE POTENTIAL FOR M-CLASS EVENTS AND AN ISOLATED X-CLASS EVENT.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS GENERALLY QUIET TO ACTIVE. MINOR STORM
CONDITIONS WERE OBSERVED AT HIGH LATITUDES DURING THE NIGHTTIME
SECTORS.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
III. Event Probabilities 15 NOV to 17 NOV
| Class M | 90% | 90% | 90% |
| Class X | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | YELLOW | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 NOV 219 Predicted 15 NOV-17 NOV 215/210/210 90 Day Mean 14 NOV 163
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 13 NOV 022/031 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 14 NOV 012/012 PREDICTED AFR/AP 15 NOV-17 NOV 008/015-010/018-010/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 NOV to 17 NOV
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 35% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 20% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 10% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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